Most skiers are at least nominally familiar with El Niño—the weather event caused by elevated ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. It’s known to drop heaps of snow and produce the types of winters glorified in the history books. And we’re getting one in just a few short months. Hallelujah, right? Right?!?!

The answer is: It’s complicated. I checked in with meteorologist Nick Russill from Snow-Forecast.com, who walked me through what our winter might look like—and why predicting snowfall during an El Niño—even one that’s forecast to be one of the biggest ever—is tricky. Here’s what we’ve learned from past El Niños, along with some things to keep in mind as winter approaches.

Meaning it should leave its mark on the entire ski season.

NOAA also puts the odds of the event reaching “very strong” status at 81 percent during the fall, with the climate signal expected to peak between October and December before gradually weakening throughout the winter. That timing is notable because its strongest influence is expected to hit around the start of ski season—late October and November—not during peak ski months.

El Niño can tilt the odds toward wetter or drier conditions, but it doesn’t determine where storms actually track. That’s still up to the atmosphere—specifically the jet stream and other weather patterns that remain impossible to forecast this far in advance.

While the overall winter forecast remains uncertain, NOAA’s latest outlook does show some regional differences. Right now, the strongest signal favors the Southwest, while the northern mountains face the biggest challenges.

The early favorites: Arizona, New Mexico, and southern Utah

The Southwest is the region with the most encouraging setup right now. NOAA is calling for above-normal precipitation across Arizona and New Mexico, with temperatures trending closer to normal by midwinter. That puts places like Taos, Ski Santa Fe, and Arizona Snowbowl in a good position heading into the season.

What About the East Coast and the Midwest?

The El Niño forecast doesn’t point to a major boost or a major bust for most Eastern ski areas. Unlike the West, where the signal is stronger, the outlook for New England is fairly neutral: There’s no clear indication of a wetter-than-normal storm track, but also nothing pointing toward a dry winter.

To sum things up, here are some actionable takeaways from our friends at Snow-Forecast.com as you sit down to plan your ski trips. The next NOAA outlook will be available on Aug. 13, and we will share additional insights then.

• Opt for resorts in higher elevations
• Favor north-facing terrain
• Keep travel dates flexible
• Treat New Mexico as promising—not guaranteed
• Don’t write off the Pacific Northwest quite yet
• Wait until late October to book, if possible